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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
82%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 14 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 22 games
77%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
72%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
365 picks · 335 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 490 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 463 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 601 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
291 picks · 347 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 154 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 424 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 241 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:36
Xtreme Gaming 47%AVULUS 53%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
42% · 213 games53% · 155 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingXm
48% · 81 game52% · 357 games
Primal BeastStormstormer
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
49% · 304 games57% · 159 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Tusk
TuskPyw
45% · 163 games58% · 267 games
LionEkki
Lion
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
46% · 214 games47% · 37 games
OracleSoNNeikO
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed31:26
Xtreme Gaming 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
45% · 127 games46% · 237 games
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
49% · 75 games56% · 177 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerXm
54% · 88 games58% · 44 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
44% · 264 games53% · 112 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon天命
50% · 247 games49% · 231 game
LionEkki
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2