?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
44%

Azure Ray

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
zzq · 12 games
92%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BEYOND · 9 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
天命 · 9 games
100%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
747 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1014 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 956 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
392 picks · 630 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:22
Xtreme Gaming 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingGhost
54% · 227 games51% · 162 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPaparazi
49% · 139 games43% · 152 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJT-
45% · 38 games54% · 266 games
DoomChalice
Doom
Rubick
RubickKaka
47% · 515 games48% · 218 games
Crystal Maidenfy
Crystal Maiden
Techies
TechiesDy
53% · 99 games52% · 220 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed17:45
Xtreme Gaming 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
61% · 76 games59% · 62 games
TimbersawSomnus
Timbersaw
Kunkka
KunkkaPaparazi
51% · 122 games54% · 49 games
Slarklou
Slark
Magnus
MagnusJT-
44% · 63 games53% · 142 games
BeastmasterChalice
Beastmaster
Lich
LichDy
44% · 85 games35% · 33 games
Windrangerfy
Windranger
Lion
LionKaka
46% · 33 games46% · 93 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed20:26
Xtreme Gaming 54%Azure Ray 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGhost
41% · 117 games50% · 60 games
Troll Warlordlou
Troll Warlord
Magnus
MagnusJT-
46% · 63 games55% · 153 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierPaparazi
49% · 265 games50% · 263 games
DoomChalice
Doom
Mirana
MiranaDy
52% · 231 game50% · 133 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionKaka
50% · 20 games58% · 87 games
Techies天命
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3