Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 688 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 375 bans
Clockwerk
320 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
318 picks · 608 bans
Hoodwink
315 picks · 241 bans
Rubick
312 picks · 203 bans
Dark Willow
310 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
293 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Xtreme Gaming 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:35.
Game 2prediction missed19:50
Xtreme Gaming 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2