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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
XinQ · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 4 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 4 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
25%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Xm · 4 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Ame · 4 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ws · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 304 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 515 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
321 picks · 300 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 369 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 455 bans
55%
Luna
Luna
248 picks · 227 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
243 picks · 154 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
242 picks · 360 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Xtreme Gaming 65%BOOM Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
48% · 54 games51% · 87 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
50% · 73 games46% · 189 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Magnus
MagnusXxs
50% · 72 games54% · 210 games
MiranaPanda
Mirana
Batrider
BatriderXinQ
54% · 106 games
Enchantress
EnchantressDy
46% · 181 game
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Xtreme Gaming 68%BOOM Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
50% · 83 games40% · 125 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXm
53% · 20 games42% · 153 games
TimbersawILICH-
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsXxs
66% · 103 games41% · 119 games
Vengeful SpiritPanda
Vengeful Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
56% · 97 games
Mirana
MiranaDy
69% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 80%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2