Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Crocodilewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Viperoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Crocodile
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Elder Titan
QYQX · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 866 bans
Void Spirit
364 picks · 522 bans
Mars
318 picks · 566 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 501 bans
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:20
Xtreme Gaming 43%Crocodile 57%
The model gave 57% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinStorm
RazorSakata
little data
PhoenixQYQX
Game 2prediction correct24:34
Xtreme Gaming 38%Crocodile 62%
The model gave 62% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaStorm
VenomancerSakata
67% · 5 games
Elder TitanQYQX
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Xtreme Gaming 48%Crocodile 52%
The model gave 52% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 52:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritStorm
Treant ProtectorQYQX
46% · 9 games
Ember SpiritSakata
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 63%
Series resultCrocodile 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3