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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Crocodileloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 27 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 18 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
47%

Crocodile

Doom
Doomoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Hara · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Manic · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Hara · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 534 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
403 picks · 333 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 386 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 176 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
348 picks · 431 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 794 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
325 picks · 331 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
Xtreme Gaming 80%Crocodile 20%
The model gave 80% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlou
49% · 96 games38% · 187 games
MorphlingManic
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
49% · 181 game55% · 119 games
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
Sand King
Viper
ViperXm
63% · 26 games51% · 207 games
Shadow DemonHara
Shadow Demon
Muerta
MuertaPyw
47% · 114 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
57% · 96 games
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Xtreme Gaming 81%Crocodile 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 19:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
49% · 72 games54% · 149 games
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
Sand King
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
61% · 53 games50% · 186 games
MagnusManic
Magnus
Doom
Doomniu
49% · 139 games45% · 278 games
Dark WillowHara
Dark Willow
Muerta
MuertaPyw
45% · 125 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
53% · 224 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 94%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2