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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 15 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
lou · 6 games
50%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lwwnb · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Night · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zzq · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 333 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
329 picks · 329 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
223 picks · 236 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
215 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 531 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
197 picks · 417 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
197 picks · 157 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
188 picks · 108 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total67% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:17
Xtreme Gaming 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
44% · 46 games55% · 99 games
Nature's ProphetGodKing
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyPaparazi
44% · 391 game56% · 100 games
Primal BeastNight
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
TimbersawJT-
47% · 99 games57% · 144 games
Viperxiaoyu154
Viper
Mirana
MiranaPyw
48% · 170 games54% · 321 game
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
51% · 77 games44% · 119 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct35:24
Xtreme Gaming 59%EHOME 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGhost
53% · 133 games51% · 38 games
SniperGodKing
Sniper
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
49% · 155 games48% · 24 games
Slardarxiaoyu154
Slardar
Magnus
MagnusJT-
47% · 35 games49% · 118 games
BatriderNight
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
46% · 36 games54% · 134 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
50% · 88 games49% · 133 games
ClockwerkLwwnb
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2