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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Excel Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 31 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 23 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 22 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 19 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
50%

Excel Esports

Batrider
Batrider
Hara · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Hara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 667 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
416 picks · 409 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 725 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
327 picks · 620 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 523 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
301 picks · 590 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength63% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Xtreme Gaming 81%Excel Esports 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
54% · 141 game55% · 108 games
MedusaManic
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXm
50% · 318 games50% · 189 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
49% · 181 game45% · 144 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPoloson
49% · 163 games49% · 172 games
WindrangerCatYou
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
47% · 58 games53% · 248 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct23:21
Xtreme Gaming 81%Excel Esports 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAme
52% · 98 games50% · 109 games
Nature's ProphetManic
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
49% · 385 games54% · 444 games
TinyButterflyEffect
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
53% · 311 games53% · 126 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Silencer
SilencerPoloson
51% · 82 games46% · 178 games
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Crystal Maiden
Muerta
MuertaXinQ
48% · 334 games43% · 353 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 94%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2