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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 29 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 23 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 18 games
67%

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Akashi · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 9 games
56%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 8 games
75%
Marci
Marci
Shanks · 8 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
485 picks · 525 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 473 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
362 picks · 203 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 360 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
348 picks · 741 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 520 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
322 picks · 203 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
317 picks · 509 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Xtreme Gaming 71%Execration 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
49% · 119 games53% · 185 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
43% · 284 games51% · 180 games
DawnbreakerTino-
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingXm
58% · 188 games52% · 209 games
Shadow ShamanShanks
Shadow Shaman
Marci
MarciXinQ
48% · 128 games49% · 216 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Bane
BanePoloson
47% · 71 game
Game 2prediction correct33:27
Xtreme Gaming 74%Execration 26%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
57% · 69 games52% · 127 games
AbaddonPalos
Abaddon
Kunkka
KunkkaXxs
43% · 53 games45% · 182 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
58% · 85 games52% · 87 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
46% · 91 game45% · 27 games
Witch Doctorcml
Witch Doctor
Tusk
TuskPoloson
52% · 125 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 88%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2