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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 23 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
64%

Gaimin Gladiators

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
78%
Sniper
Sniper
Quinn · 21 game
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
82%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 380 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 534 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 747 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 644 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 757 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 649 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Xtreme Gaming 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperXm
50% · 69 games50% · 145 games
Razordyrachyo
Razor
Visage
VisageXxs
54% · 20 games38% · 39 games
Lone DruidAce
Lone Druid
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
54% · 148 games50% · 111 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawXinQ
43% · 129 games49% · 198 games
Shadow DemontOfu
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
52% · 178 games58% · 51 game
IoSeleri
Io
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Xtreme Gaming 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerAme
51% · 144 games54% · 110 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Viper
ViperXm
44% · 20 games52% · 37 games
DazzleQuinn
Dazzle
Mars
MarsXxs
50% · 167 games52% · 173 games
KunkkaAce
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickXinQ
48% · 238 games45% · 7 games
TinkertOfu
Tinker
Marci
MarciDy
45% · 54 games51% · 296 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 54%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2