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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Heroicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 23 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pyw · 16 games
69%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 26 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 17 games
76%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 687 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 180 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 469 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 642 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 325 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total53% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:21
Xtreme Gaming 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightlou
53% · 291 game46% · 65 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeniu
42% · 118 games53% · 346 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierXm
49% · 366 games57% · 331 game
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
51% · 268 games47% · 400 games
BatriderScofield
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixPoloson
52% · 200 games50% · 101 game
Ogre MagiKJ
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1