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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 29 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 27 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 24 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 21 game
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 27 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
76%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 631 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 405 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
409 picks · 459 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
406 picks · 852 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 347 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 566 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 530 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:33
Xtreme Gaming 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAme
51% · 205 games65% · 12 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
45% · 246 games58% · 281 game
Monkey King4nalog
Monkey King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
47% · 133 games47% · 62 games
AxeWisper
Axe
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPoloson
49% · 136 games49% · 294 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
50% · 112 games50% · 183 games
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct37:28
Xtreme Gaming 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:01:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarXm
41% · 71 game58% · 215 games
Monkey King4nalog
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
44% · 95 games43% · 132 games
LinaYuma
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
42% · 363 games58% · 205 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
53% · 123 games55% · 135 games
Elder TitanKJ
Elder Titan
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
53% · 175 games52% · 140 games
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2