Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 18 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
Lone Druidoften banned
lou · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Pyw · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
413 picks · 421 bans
Tiny
394 picks · 378 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 264 bans
Mirana
301 picks · 309 bans
Treant Protector
260 picks · 306 bans
Snapfire
243 picks · 127 bans
Crystal Maiden
215 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
207 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Xtreme Gaming 67%Invictus Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:54.
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Xtreme Gaming 67%Invictus Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2