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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Paparazi · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
50%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 20 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 9 games
78%
Silencer
Silencer
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 9 games
78%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Lich
Lichsignature
Victoria · 7 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
802 picks · 568 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
472 picks · 762 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
423 picks · 868 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 302 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
365 picks · 277 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:6
Xtreme Gaming 65%Limit 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 22:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageGhost
56% · 36 games50% · 225 games
MorphlingChosenone
Morphling
Puck
PuckPaparazi
50% · 222 games51% · 100 games
Centaur Warrunner冷鸟
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJT-
47% · 256 games49% · 457 games
Death ProphetKry
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickDy
49% · 432 games49% · 389 games
Clockwerk出省
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskKaka
48% · 342 games54% · 117 games
Earthshakercxk
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct17:4
Xtreme Gaming 67%Limit 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 16:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
55% · 48 games46% · 217 games
Doom冷鸟
Doom
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJT-
49% · 426 games50% · 196 games
Chaos KnightChosenone
Chaos Knight
Invoker
InvokerPaparazi
47% · 112 games51% · 170 games
Shadow FiendKry
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyKaka
54% · 672 games53% · 233 games
Enchantress出省
Enchantress
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDy
45% · 57 games52% · 499 games
Rubickcxk
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 79%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2