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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 23 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 43 games
67%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 32 games
59%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 24 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
754 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 629 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
446 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
445 picks · 499 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 1180 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 722 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 254 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
Xtreme Gaming 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
54% · 256 games47% · 284 games
GyrocopterGhost
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
42% · 238 games56% · 144 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
48% · 261 game58% · 37 games
VenomancerMidOne
Venomancer
Naga Siren
Naga SirenxNova
61% · 139 games49% · 384 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Ringmaster
Ringmasterfy
46% · 336 games44% · 381 game
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed19:33
Xtreme Gaming 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
55% · 288 games48% · 355 games
GyrocopterGhost
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
49% · 225 games58% · 335 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
47% · 493 games50% · 297 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Grimstroke
Grimstrokefy
46% · 62 games57% · 121 game
Naga SirenKaori
Naga Siren
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
41% · 421 game49% · 381 game
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed31:37
Xtreme Gaming 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
52% · 265 games48% · 475 games
Dragon KnightGhost
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNothingToSay
55% · 237 games54% · 211 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
47% · 115 games50% · 162 games
AxeBOOM
Axe
Tusk
TuskxNova
47% · 348 games50% · 298 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
49% · 274 games49% · 93 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 65%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3