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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
XinQ · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 12 games
67%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 51 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 37 games
59%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 29 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 28 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 354 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 598 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
559 picks · 299 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
458 picks · 537 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 275 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
453 picks · 280 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 736 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 1125 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:17
Xtreme Gaming 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 23:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
51% · 251 game53% · 359 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
48% · 306 games48% · 377 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
44% · 262 games54% · 178 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
47% · 262 games51% · 443 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Ringmaster
Ringmasterfy
54% · 351 game51% · 75 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1