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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 21 game
67%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 15 games
47%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 73 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 39 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 38 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
634 picks · 994 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 442 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 639 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1052 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 489 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 279 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 584 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 516 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total50% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Xtreme Gaming 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
43% · 159 games57% · 234 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
39% · 100 games57% · 124 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
42% · 261 game57% · 249 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockxNova
43% · 293 games60% · 205 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
43% · 81 game58% · 82 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed32:15
Xtreme Gaming 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezAme
40% · 84 games53% · 299 games
PuckMidOne
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
49% · 186 games56% · 131 game
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Viper
ViperNothingToSay
53% · 104 games47% · 260 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
52% · 287 games53% · 90 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
47% · 173 games52% · 54 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 50%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2