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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 23 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
74%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 29 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
757 picks · 357 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 625 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
548 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
454 picks · 515 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 1182 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 730 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
415 picks · 263 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:21
Xtreme Gaming 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 59:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
42% · 104 games51% · 255 games
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
52% · 162 games58% · 215 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
48% · 196 games42% · 138 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
50% · 344 games52% · 283 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
46% · 263 games59% · 178 games
JakiroTobi
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct24:13
Xtreme Gaming 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
48% · 476 games53% · 278 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
51% · 248 games45% · 334 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
49% · 319 games46% · 378 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
52% · 316 games51% · 283 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
52% · 217 games53% · 303 games
BatriderTobi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2