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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 13 games
62%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 13 games
62%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 21 game
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
771 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
580 picks · 299 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 550 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
535 picks · 407 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
520 picks · 633 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 292 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
474 picks · 743 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 517 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total52% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:25
Xtreme Gaming 51%Nigma Galaxy 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
55% · 162 games45% · 123 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
44% · 363 games47% · 504 games
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
55% · 331 game48% · 315 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
55% · 259 games54% · 267 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
50% · 396 games47% · 302 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Xtreme Gaming 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
51% · 319 games55% · 324 games
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Axe
AxeXxs
44% · 186 games52% · 197 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
53% · 396 games51% · 359 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
48% · 300 games47% · 480 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskxNova
51% · 476 games48% · 317 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2