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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
81%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Dy · 14 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
77%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 12 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 11 games
55%

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 24 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 24 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 22 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 22 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 318 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 466 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 464 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 179 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 585 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
271 picks · 332 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 442 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
250 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:47
Xtreme Gaming 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:25:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
52% · 287 games50% · 317 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
53% · 240 games43% · 218 games
DoomGunnar
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
53% · 169 games46% · 212 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskPyw
50% · 285 games45% · 286 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
58% · 340 games50% · 288 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Xtreme Gaming 55%nouns 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by nouns in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
47% · 155 games46% · 205 games
BeastmasterGunnar
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckXm
52% · 193 games46% · 227 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
54% · 192 games60% · 109 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
48% · 261 game44% · 162 games
MuertaLelis
Muerta
Tusk
Tusk天命
48% · 231 game55% · 329 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2