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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 20 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
40%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 35 games
51%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
65%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Taiga · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
502 picks · 329 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 932 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 858 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:4
Xtreme Gaming 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
48% · 106 games50% · 167 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Meepo
MeepoJT-
52% · 13 games54% · 410 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPaparazi
47% · 403 games50% · 197 games
Dragon Knightbzm
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickXinQ
46% · 676 games53% · 415 games
MiranaCeb
Mirana
Silencer
SilencerDy
49% · 280 games55% · 289 games
EnigmaTaiga
Enigma
Game 2prediction missed14:39
Xtreme Gaming 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
59% · 105 games46% · 138 games
SlarkYuragi
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
49% · 106 games43% · 119 games
Windrangerbzm
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJT-
50% · 135 games50% · 172 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
53% · 154 games47% · 45 games
Elder TitanTaiga
Elder Titan
Warlock
WarlockDy
56% · 16 games52% · 42 games
LionCeb
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2