?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 8 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Dy · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
XinQ · 6 games
67%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
64%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 13 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 13 games
69%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 338 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
331 picks · 317 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
317 picks · 471 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
289 picks · 393 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
276 picks · 191 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 403 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
269 picks · 147 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
264 picks · 188 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:18
Xtreme Gaming 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
55% · 184 games53% · 251 game
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXxs
48% · 101 game55% · 84 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Sniper
SniperXm
44% · 10 games54% · 192 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Rubick
RubickXinQ
44% · 450 games51% · 302 games
TechiesAri
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
40% · 164 games55% · 80 games
Elder TitanCeb
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed30:37
Xtreme Gaming 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
51% · 64 games48% · 257 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
48% · 104 games59% · 271 game
Miranabzm
Mirana
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
45% · 203 games51% · 78 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Rubick
RubickXinQ
47% · 419 games43% · 151 game
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
53% · 207 games54% · 240 games
BatriderCeb
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed25:31
Xtreme Gaming 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 54:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracXm
52% · 112 games49% · 134 games
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
54% · 105 games51% · 82 games
Razorbzm
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaXxs
48% · 96 games52% · 151 game
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
42% · 144 games54% · 125 games
MiranaCeb
Mirana
Batrider
BatriderDy
51% · 238 games48% · 203 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3