ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 16 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
Batridersignature
Dy · 11 games
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
Rubick
Ari · 24 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 203 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 830 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 666 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 593 bans
Rubick
411 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 702 bans
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
Techies
381 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total76% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:19
Xtreme Gaming 63%OG 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAme
LunaTimado
PangolierXm
Void Spiritbzm
MarsXxs
BrewmasterWisper
Winter WyvernXinQ
BaneCeb
SnapfireDy
MarciAri
Game 2prediction missed
Xtreme Gaming 76%OG 24%
The model gave 76% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 76%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2