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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PlayTimewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 31 game
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 29 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 25 games
48%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
71%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 10 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 10 games
70%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Viper
Vipersignature
Armel · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
541 picks · 328 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
501 picks · 590 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 368 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
413 picks · 225 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
367 picks · 277 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 877 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 467 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 845 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
Xtreme Gaming 57%PlayTime 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by PlayTime in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
45% · 221 game54% · 25 games
NecrophosWits
Necrophos
Axe
AxeXxs
47% · 204 games51% · 366 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireNothingToSay
52% · 324 games51% · 129 games
BrewmasterFrank
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
49% · 286 games49% · 227 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Rubick
Rubickfy
52% · 303 games53% · 591 game
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultPlayTime 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1