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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 31 game
61%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 13 games
38%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
527 picks · 780 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 596 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 532 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
479 picks · 597 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
458 picks · 389 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
437 picks · 992 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
430 picks · 791 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
389 picks · 899 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:43
Xtreme Gaming 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
56% · 306 games39% · 126 games
Phantom AssassinTimado
Phantom Assassin
Doom
Doomniu
61% · 230 games47% · 548 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXm
55% · 160 games44% · 228 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePoloson
48% · 76 games45% · 153 games
ZeusSkem
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkUndyne_
57% · 336 games47% · 53 games
RikiHellscream
Riki
Game 2prediction correct6:38
Xtreme Gaming 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 18:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomniu
53% · 186 games50% · 98 games
BloodseekerTimado
Bloodseeker
Morphling
Morphlinglou
49% · 186 games46% · 482 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierXm
50% · 321 game52% · 101 game
Night StalkerPakazs
Night Stalker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterPoloson
59% · 58 games50% · 51 game
Spirit BreakerHellscream
Spirit Breaker
Lich
LichUndyne_
58% · 121 game39% · 140 games
ZeusSkem
Zeus
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2