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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Solitudeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 18 games
72%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
lou · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 6 games
83%

Solitude

Tusk
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Son GoKu · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 2 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
7e · 2 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Son GoKu · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 338 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
340 picks · 329 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
256 picks · 253 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
239 picks · 187 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 148 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 510 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
183 picks · 105 bans
48%
Silencer
Silencer
180 picks · 198 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:2
Xtreme Gaming 78%Solitude 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 20:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawJT-
56% · 5 games52% · 62 games
Centaur WarrunnerSon GoKu
Centaur Warrunner
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
54% · 9 games
Tiny
TinyPaparazi
39% · 27 games
Rubick
RubickPyw
61% · 14 games
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
27% · 7 games
Game 2prediction correct24:6
Xtreme Gaming 76%Solitude 24%
The model gave 76% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 19:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPaparazi
53% · 13 games50% · 85 games
BroodmotherSon GoKu
Broodmother
Kunkka
KunkkaGhost
45% · 7 games
Tidehunter
TidehunterJT-
60% · 11 games
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
45% · 38 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDy
45% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 91%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2