?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South America Rejectswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 25 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 23 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 22 games
77%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 22 games
50%

South America Rejects

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
DarkMago · 4 games
75%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 403 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
446 picks · 496 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
434 picks · 213 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1033 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 880 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Xtreme Gaming 72%South America Rejects 28%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
75% · 4 games53% · 77 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
46% · 150 games54% · 59 games
AlchemistWits
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
46% · 132 games49% · 57 games
ViperFrank
Viper
Rubick
Rubickfy
53% · 72 games49% · 202 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
46% · 73 games55% · 36 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct27:4
Xtreme Gaming 74%South America Rejects 26%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
66% · 20 games48% · 200 games
BeastmasterWits
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 295 games46% · 68 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Slardar
SlardarXxs
54% · 255 games54% · 104 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Techies
Techiesfy
41% · 48 games49% · 52 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
52% · 75 games47% · 269 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed17:37
Xtreme Gaming 75%South America Rejects 25%
The model gave 75% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
54% · 132 games47% · 360 games
BeastmasterWits
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
57% · 125 games45% · 43 games
Death ProphetDarkMago
Death Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
57% · 138 games46% · 83 games
EnigmaFrank
Enigma
Tusk
Tuskfy
50% · 329 games47% · 147 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenxNova
54% · 32 games43% · 123 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 88%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3