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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 27 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 20 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 18 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%

Talon Esports

Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 808 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
367 picks · 373 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
354 picks · 262 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 733 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 510 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
308 picks · 632 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:26
Xtreme Gaming 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingXm
54% · 50 games53% · 100 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
44% · 247 games47% · 99 games
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
48% · 293 games48% · 167 games
Dark SeerWs
Dark Seer
Chen
ChenDy
54% · 76 games51% · 275 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroXinQ
55% · 94 games50% · 119 games
Elder TitanPonyo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct43:25
Xtreme Gaming 69%Talon Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
50% · 234 games50% · 94 games
Shadow FiendMikoto
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyXm
51% · 264 games54% · 148 games
Chaos KnightAkashi
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
54% · 52 games53% · 211 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
50% · 224 games48% · 215 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Jakiro
JakiroDy
45% · 102 games47% · 208 games
EnchantressPonyo
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct31:16
Xtreme Gaming 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
52% · 253 games54% · 220 games
WeaverAkashi
Weaver
Tiny
TinyXm
51% · 331 game49% · 163 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
55% · 224 games51% · 222 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
44% · 167 games45% · 433 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
54% · 177 games47% · 114 games
JakiroPonyo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 83%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3