The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
Talon Esports
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 15 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 15 games
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
410 picks · 378 bans
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 538 bans
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
331 picks · 736 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 745 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 643 bans
Phoenix
311 picks · 632 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
Xtreme Gaming 93%Talon Esports 7%
The model gave 93% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:51.
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Xtreme Gaming 78%Talon Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckXm
WindrangerAkashi
Shadow FiendAme
Dragon KnightMikoto
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
EnigmaWs
MiranaXinQ
BatriderJhocam
TuskDy
PhoenixPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 93%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2