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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 27 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 18 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 16 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
53%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
629 picks · 1000 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 446 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 505 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
452 picks · 1073 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
452 picks · 288 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 630 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 593 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 499 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:46
Xtreme Gaming 54%Team Falcons 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
50% · 216 games52% · 90 games
ViperMalr1ne
Viper
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
56% · 218 games49% · 440 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
45% · 117 games53% · 231 game
Sand KingCorrupted
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterxNova
52% · 448 games46% · 645 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Tusk
Tuskfy
50% · 502 games44% · 95 games
LargoCr1t-
Largo
Game 2prediction correct26:18
Xtreme Gaming 55%Team Falcons 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezAme
50% · 76 games59% · 207 games
Shadow FiendSkiter
Shadow Fiend
Largo
LargoXxs
48% · 78 games58% · 36 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
43% · 354 games44% · 324 games
TinyMalr1ne
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
52% · 217 games52% · 150 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
45% · 170 games53% · 178 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed25:31
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:07:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
48% · 263 games54% · 86 games
KezSkiter
Kez
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
50% · 129 games51% · 135 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
48% · 170 games51% · 224 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Tiny
Tinyfy
40% · 326 games51% · 489 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
49% · 146 games59% · 100 games
LargoCr1t-
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3