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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 7 games
43%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
39%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
454 picks · 637 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 758 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 494 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 810 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
Xtreme Gaming 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 55:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracPaparazi
48% · 46 games51% · 36 games
Drow RangerMATUMBAMAN
Drow Ranger
Morphling
Morphlinglou
45% · 84 games57% · 71 game
Visagezai
Visage
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
46% · 34 games44% · 137 games
Void SpiritmiCKe
Void Spirit
Marci
MarciPyw
45% · 113 games51% · 51 game
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Io
IoDy
55% · 104 games57% · 86 games
EarthshakerBoxi
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction missed15:37
Xtreme Gaming 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinglou
47% · 161 game48% · 101 game
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracPaparazi
42% · 53 games59% · 25 games
PudgeMATUMBAMAN
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
43% · 28 games52% · 21 game
Axezai
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
56% · 49 games48% · 261 game
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Io
IoDy
51% · 179 games58% · 62 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2