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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 21 game
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 18 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
64%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Xm · 14 games
57%

Team Liquid

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 423 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 541 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 720 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 638 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 606 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 728 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:24
Xtreme Gaming 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAme
45% · 127 games54% · 73 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Viper
ViperXm
46% · 54 games48% · 78 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Visage
VisageXxs
40% · 44 games56% · 81 game
Doom33
Doom
Slark
SlarkXinQ
43% · 76 games58% · 73 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Marci
MarciDy
56% · 79 games52% · 75 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed1:19
Xtreme Gaming 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 19:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckXm
46% · 175 games50% · 141 game
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
49% · 196 games51% · 35 games
Visage33
Visage
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
41% · 43 games53% · 275 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderXinQ
50% · 253 games55% · 176 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
55% · 120 games47% · 160 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 64%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2