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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 27 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
70%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 17 games
47%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
23savage · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
585 picks · 919 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 420 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
472 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 286 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1044 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 574 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 666 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 562 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:17
Xtreme Gaming 73%Team Nemesis 27%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
54% · 268 games51% · 367 games
Beastmaster23savage
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
46% · 133 games46% · 395 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
49% · 600 games52% · 214 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
53% · 288 games47% · 463 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockxNova
52% · 489 games49% · 339 games
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed18:33
Xtreme Gaming 74%Team Nemesis 26%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:08:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
50% · 104 games50% · 182 games
Sven23savage
Sven
Ursa
UrsaAme
54% · 255 games52% · 423 games
PuckMac
Puck
Mars
MarsXxs
50% · 385 games39% · 102 games
BrewmasterJabz
Brewmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanfy
51% · 369 games51% · 219 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockxNova
53% · 473 games49% · 660 games
JakiroQ
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct35:27
Xtreme Gaming 73%Team Nemesis 27%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:05:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
55% · 247 games46% · 195 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
47% · 310 games54% · 139 games
Razor23savage
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
48% · 187 games46% · 349 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Tiny
Tinyfy
51% · 551 game47% · 504 games
JakiroQ
Jakiro
Bane
BanexNova
60% · 204 games47% · 312 games
RingmasterJaunuel
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 87%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3