?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Refuserloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 14 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 14 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
fy · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 13 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 12 games
50%

Team Refuser

Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
zeal · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pyw · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
zeal · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 1 game
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
572 picks · 920 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 408 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 656 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 627 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 902 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 623 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 516 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
364 picks · 221 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:34
Xtreme Gaming 82%Team Refuser 18%
The model gave 82% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 1:38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerAme
51% · 245 games51% · 348 games
Dragon Knightpoyoyo
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsXxs
44% · 385 games55% · 156 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
52% · 427 games49% · 320 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickfy
45% · 84 games47% · 180 games
Queen of PainPaparazi
Queen of Pain
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
61% · 72 games49% · 209 games
Shadow DemonDy
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct27:13
Xtreme Gaming 82%Team Refuser 18%
The model gave 82% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
47% · 307 games53% · 229 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
48% · 88 games49% · 114 games
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
44% · 120 games49% · 94 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Lion
Lionfy
45% · 87 games55% · 50 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
60% · 44 games54% · 159 games
Shadow ShamanDy
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct24:5
Xtreme Gaming 81%Team Refuser 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 21:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
38% · 61 game54% · 274 games
PuckPaparazi
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
50% · 121 game49% · 257 games
Gyrocopterpoyoyo
Gyrocopter
Slardar
SlardarXxs
59% · 156 games53% · 33 games
Razorzeal
Razor
Chen
ChenxNova
61% · 139 games47% · 53 games
Faceless VoidPyw
Faceless Void
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
48% · 196 games42% · 56 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 95%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3