Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painoften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Another · 5 games
Bane
Dy · 4 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dy · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 4 games
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 21 game
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 544 bans
Bane
341 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 207 bans
Weaver
325 picks · 712 bans
Monkey King
251 picks · 752 bans
Tidehunter
244 picks · 381 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 153 bans
Io
234 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:24
Xtreme Gaming 40%Team SMG 60%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAnother
Troll WarlordMidOne
PuckPaparazi
Ember SpiritMoon
Legion CommanderSrf
Death ProphetRoddgeee
Spirit BreakerPyw
Nyx AssassinAhFu
WeaverDy
Game 2prediction missed42:23
Xtreme Gaming 41%Team SMG 59%
The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingAnother
KunkkaMidOne
PuckPaparazi
Death ProphetMoon
BeastmasterSrf
EarthshakerAhFu
MiranaPyw
AbaddonRoddgeee
BaneDy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2