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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Zeroloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 19 games
53%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
79%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ghost · 13 games
46%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
67%

Team Zero

Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 8 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 8 games
88%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
iceice · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
565 picks · 605 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
465 picks · 237 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 792 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
377 picks · 698 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
370 picks · 375 bans
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
343 picks · 832 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
340 picks · 723 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 727 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 72%
Hero pool strength58% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:37
Xtreme Gaming 56%Team Zero 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 55:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
53% · 125 games53% · 151 game
Naga SirenCty
Naga Siren
Viper
ViperXm
66% · 28 games39% · 79 games
Legion CommanderBEYOND
Legion Commander
Doom
DoomJT-
57% · 133 games41% · 56 games
Earth Spirit7e
Earth Spirit
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
57% · 140 games40% · 126 games
Phoenixiceice
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDy
53% · 20 games42% · 34 games
Gyrocopterzzq
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct34:17
Xtreme Gaming 54%Team Zero 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
57% · 10 games43% · 27 games
GyrocopterCty
Gyrocopter
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXm
57% · 3 games44% · 27 games
Earth Spirit7e
Earth Spirit
Mars
MarsJT-
47% · 48 games56% · 47 games
UnderlordBEYOND
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
54% · 97 games47% · 47 games
Shadow Demoniceice
Shadow Demon
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDy
47% · 19 games54% · 29 games
Venomancerzzq
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct22:15
Xtreme Gaming 52%Team Zero 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
43% · 23 games48% · 109 games
DoomBEYOND
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
50% · 79 games48% · 45 games
SvenCty
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJT-
49% · 114 games52% · 44 games
Invoker7e
Invoker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
45% · 58 games59% · 31 game
Venomancerzzq
Venomancer
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDy
50% · 19 games57% · 64 games
Naga Sireniceice
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3