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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tearlamentsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
xNova · 13 games
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
XinQ · 13 games
46%

Tearlaments

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Srf · 13 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 12 games
42%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
7e · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
782 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
581 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
574 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
485 picks · 311 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 562 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
474 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 750 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 1112 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
Xtreme Gaming 69%Tearlaments 31%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
49% · 69 games42% · 49 games
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Axe
AxeXxs
42% · 107 games51% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
52% · 126 games50% · 99 games
Sand King7e
Sand King
Lion
LionxNova
55% · 58 games51% · 78 games
Dazzlezzq
Dazzle
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
55% · 181 game50% · 147 games
HoodwinkTK
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed10:35
Xtreme Gaming 72%Tearlaments 28%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
48% · 167 games59% · 60 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
56% · 58 games47% · 360 games
Pangolier7e
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
43% · 188 games53% · 86 games
PudgeSrf
Pudge
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
53% · 128 games40% · 56 games
Skywrath MageTK
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
54% · 107 games49% · 86 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct40:19
Xtreme Gaming 71%Tearlaments 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
51% · 206 games53% · 226 games
Nature's Prophet7e
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
51% · 186 games46% · 36 games
Venomancerpoyoyo
Venomancer
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
47% · 388 games48% · 250 games
MarsSrf
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorxNova
48% · 293 games51% · 387 games
TuskTK
Tusk
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
48% · 50 games53% · 224 games
Shadow Demonzzq
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 85%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3