DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Titanloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 28 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
Muerta
Pyw · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
407 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
Lion
354 picks · 179 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 437 bans
Beastmaster
335 picks · 809 bans
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength62% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:24
Xtreme Gaming 84%Titan 16%
The model gave 84% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 20:38.
Game 2prediction missed21:23
Xtreme Gaming 84%Titan 16%
The model gave 84% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Titan in 44:52.
Game 3prediction correct20:46
Xtreme Gaming 84%Titan 16%
The model gave 84% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 84%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3