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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 15 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 11 games
91%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 10 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 37 games
84%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 26 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 23 games
87%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 20 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Whitemon · 13 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
501 picks · 785 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
458 picks · 973 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
453 picks · 350 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 602 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
448 picks · 716 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 203 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
425 picks · 720 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
Xtreme Gaming 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
42% · 109 games49% · 15 games
Drow RangerPure~
Drow Ranger
Zeus
ZeusXm
48% · 35 games67% · 18 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
51% · 153 games52% · 117 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
45% · 173 games53% · 237 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
48% · 36 games54% · 119 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Xtreme Gaming 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorXm
49% · 126 games45% · 125 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Slark
SlarkAme
58% · 158 games49% · 185 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
52% · 261 game44% · 123 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
51% · 194 games50% · 246 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Io
IoDy
53% · 63 games48% · 123 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2