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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 23 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 22 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 19 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 18 games
61%

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 34 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 34 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 32 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 29 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 24 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
380 picks · 284 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 720 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 289 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
303 picks · 160 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 778 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
265 picks · 617 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 529 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 492 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Xtreme Gaming 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 55:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
55% · 23 games56% · 5 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
51% · 283 games54% · 146 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierXm
44% · 345 games49% · 385 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyXinQ
45% · 334 games52% · 197 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernxNova
57% · 13 games53% · 265 games
WarlockTobi
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct21:16
Xtreme Gaming 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzAme
59% · 20 games54% · 113 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Slardar
SlardarXxs
49% · 57 games63% · 86 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
46% · 139 games48% · 113 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
46% · 124 games50% · 58 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockxNova
41% · 146 games54% · 116 games
PugnaTobi
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2