BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 13 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Tundra Esports
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 23 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
607 picks · 939 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 436 bans
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 646 bans
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 654 bans
Shadow Demon
443 picks · 956 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 654 bans
Mars
393 picks · 531 bans
Warlock
380 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Xtreme Gaming 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAme
Shadow Fiendbzm
BrewmasterXxs
Tidehunter33
LeshracNothingToSay
SlarkPure~
MiranaxNova
MarciAri
Largofy
PhoenixWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1