DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 31 game
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Tiny
NothingToSay · 25 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
Tundra Esports
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 35 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Batridersignature
33 · 32 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 27 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
541 picks · 327 bans
Phoenix
500 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 365 bans
Rubick
414 picks · 225 bans
Jakiro
365 picks · 271 bans
Puck
340 picks · 875 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:34
Xtreme Gaming 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:03:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAme
MuertaPure~
PangolierNothingToSay
Doom33
UnderlordXxs
Storm Spiritbzm
Rubickfy
HoodwinkAri
BanexNova
LichWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1