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ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 25 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 23 games
70%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xm · 16 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 11 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
511 picks · 418 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 255 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
472 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
412 picks · 358 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
364 picks · 814 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 864 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 203 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:21
Xtreme Gaming 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:09:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
49% · 35 games53% · 126 games
Kezshiro
Kez
Tiny
TinyAme
46% · 293 games45% · 342 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
52% · 244 games49% · 227 games
UnderlordFaith_bian
Underlord
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
58% · 286 games53% · 225 games
MuertaXinQ
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerxNova
45% · 75 games47% · 13 games
Winter Wyverny`
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed14:33
Xtreme Gaming 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 56:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAme
47% · 214 games59% · 185 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
42% · 319 games53% · 337 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
37% · 226 games52% · 174 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightfy
47% · 114 games54% · 202 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkxNova
44% · 129 games67% · 104 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed14:33
Xtreme Gaming 56%Vici Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
57% · 152 games48% · 111 games
Kezshiro
Kez
Slardar
SlardarXxs
53% · 303 games46% · 296 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
49% · 199 games45% · 337 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
52% · 408 games46% · 84 games
Venomancery`
Venomancer
Oracle
OraclexNova
54% · 97 games51% · 331 game
BatriderXinQ
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3