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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
86%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 23 games
83%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 657 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 765 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 371 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 833 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
Xtreme Gaming 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidlou
37% · 8 games48% · 20 games
Troll WarlordRAMZES666
Troll Warlord
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPaparazi
44% · 31 game43% · 24 games
LeshracgpK~
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
45% · 7 games42% · 16 games
VenomancerDM
Venomancer
Marci
MarciPyw
52% · 109 games60% · 63 games
Earthshakeryamich
Earthshaker
Dazzle
DazzleDy
51% · 41 game54% · 73 games
UndyingXakoda
Undying
Game 2prediction correct31:38
Xtreme Gaming 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 57:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglou
48% · 64 games63% · 46 games
SlarkRAMZES666
Slark
Zeus
ZeusPaparazi
38% · 48 games54% · 90 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Tidehunter
TidehunterELeVeN
45% · 59 games40% · 40 games
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPyw
49% · 56 games42% · 34 games
SilencerXakoda
Silencer
Undying
UndyingDy
57% · 70 games53% · 87 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2