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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Poloson · 16 games
63%

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Antares · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 795 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 317 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 674 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 794 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 879 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
395 picks · 375 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 1065 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 528 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Xtreme Gaming 60%Virtus.pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
47% · 135 games46% · 151 game
DoomTA2000
Doom
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXm
38% · 4 games45% · 84 games
MedusaDaxak
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusXxs
53% · 153 games50% · 92 games
EarthshakerSquad1x
Earthshaker
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
49% · 82 games54% · 48 games
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Keeper of the Light
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
48% · 77 games61% · 76 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct28:22
Xtreme Gaming 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeXxs
46% · 154 games46% · 103 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
46% · 13 games39% · 100 games
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXm
52% · 180 games51% · 84 games
SniperSquad1x
Sniper
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
63% · 39 games50% · 80 games
RingmasterOneJey
Ringmaster
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
50% · 148 games57% · 167 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2