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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
The Warden · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 428 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
455 picks · 643 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 758 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
296 picks · 492 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 817 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:9
Xtreme Gaming 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:29.
Game 2prediction correct31:18
Xtreme Gaming 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 71%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2