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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 30 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 23 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Xm · 22 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 25 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 675 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
421 picks · 416 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
329 picks · 632 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
304 picks · 598 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:20
Xtreme Gaming 66%Yakult Brothers 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
52% · 161 game52% · 137 games
Nature's Prophetflyfly
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomXxs
49% · 177 games53% · 264 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingXm
49% · 185 games45% · 176 games
Marszeal
Mars
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
49% · 97 games47% · 97 games
PugnaOli
Pugna
Jakiro
JakiroPoloson
48% · 187 games56% · 133 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Xtreme Gaming 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
52% · 210 games48% · 203 games
Templar Assassinflyfly
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyAme
50% · 269 games50% · 116 games
KunkkaEmo
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingXm
53% · 151 game47% · 186 games
Tidehunterzeal
Tidehunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
56% · 96 games49% · 259 games
WindrangerPyw
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroPoloson
49% · 255 games48% · 217 games
RingmasterOli
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct28:17
Xtreme Gaming 66%Yakult Brothers 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterAme
53% · 136 games46% · 126 games
Templar Assassinflyfly
Templar Assassin
Sniper
SniperXm
44% · 157 games53% · 169 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackXxs
55% · 346 games49% · 190 games
DoomPyw
Doom
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
46% · 267 games51% · 286 games
Pangolierzeal
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
54% · 99 games48% · 234 games
JakiroOli
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 79%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3