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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 25 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 23 games
74%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 22 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 21 game
52%

Yakult Brothers

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 19 games
32%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 19 games
26%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 17 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
683 picks · 841 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 567 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 424 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
474 picks · 333 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1149 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 687 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 620 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 37%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total88% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:22
Xtreme Gaming 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 54:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
48% · 212 games50% · 200 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
54% · 152 games51% · 269 games
Templar Assassinflyfly
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsXxs
44% · 263 games49% · 106 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
50% · 201 game54% · 25 games
IoBoBoKa
Io
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
54% · 56 games50% · 284 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct17:3
Xtreme Gaming 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 19:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
45% · 89 games48% · 102 games
Razorflyfly
Razor
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
47% · 100 games50% · 391 game
Storm SpiritMoon
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
47% · 209 games56% · 188 games
Primal BeastJT-
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
54% · 190 games56% · 53 games
OracleBoBoKa
Oracle
Disruptor
DisruptorxNova
46% · 173 games56% · 27 games
Io天命
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 88%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2