Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ybb Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 17 games
Tiny
Paparazi · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
Lion
Pyw · 7 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Paparazi · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
Disruptor
Dy · 5 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
786 picks · 537 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 577 bans
Nature's Prophet
428 picks · 693 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 297 bans
Death Prophet
396 picks · 765 bans
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 824 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 79%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:21
Xtreme Gaming 51%Ybb Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:58.
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Xtreme Gaming 51%Ybb Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 58:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 51%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2