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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cloud Risingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 20 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 20 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 18 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 17 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
BoBoKa · 16 games
50%

Cloud Rising

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 4 games
25%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
lou · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Undyne_ · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
641 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 408 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
415 picks · 389 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1090 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 830 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 566 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Cloud Rising
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:15
Yakult Brothers 71%Cloud Rising 29%
The model gave 71% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyflyfly
42% · 173 games49% · 166 games
Kezlou
Kez
Bristleback
BristlebackJT-
56% · 112 games47% · 475 games
PuckQ7
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
47% · 152 games
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
58% · 99 games
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
57% · 105 games
Game 2prediction missed7:20
Yakult Brothers 69%Cloud Rising 31%
The model gave 69% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaflyfly
40% · 34 games57% · 97 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
46% · 97 games47% · 262 games
SlardarQ7
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderJT-
47% · 103 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
48% · 98 games
Treant Protector
Treant Protector天命
66% · 27 games
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Yakult Brothers 72%Cloud Rising 28%
The model gave 72% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendflyfly
56% · 95 games43% · 132 games
Lunalou
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordJT-
60% · 108 games44% · 446 games
BeastmasterQ7
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
62% · 97 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoBoKa
48% · 119 games
Tusk
Tusk天命
54% · 159 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 86%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3